Just typing some thoughts here.
The movie proves that the other POS was building an Aeon, but it doesn't really say anything about what was being produced in the destructed POS.
That is, not without proof the screenshots aren't played with. Both EvilThug and SirMolle posted an altered screenshot in another thread (the thread by JForce I believe). Molle's was clearly altered there, EvilThugs was altered, harder to see. I suspect that BoB would've spent at least some more time and effort into forging screenshots than those attempts. The screenshots posted by Arenis aren't clearly forges. Some people suggested they were made on the test server. Possible, but a quite elaborate scheme.
With that being said, it's still possible those are forged. The sincerity of the screenshots will determine the relevance of the Aeon movie.
In any event, this remains an astonishing situation. If Molle speaks the truth this was definitely a great trap and I think any player should at least give them some credit the fact that they pulled something like this off. If their post is a lie, however, it's a good attempt of SirMolle to turn things around.
Another interesting thing is Molle's post a day before, where he confirms it was a titan. No proof given at all, and it was on april first. April fools? Possible, the post certainly was intended as one, but together with this post, it really confused the posters on CAOD. In that aspect, the time of the year for BoB to lose a titan and still get away with posting it wasn't so couldn't have been better.
I just can't believe that the coalition would simply throw away 42 dreads and 5 carriers for some hunch. Yet if the coalition itself admits it (which I haven't seen them do, I've only seen people post 'goons knew!'), then so be it, I'll have to settle with gray hairs pondering on the question 'why!? GAAAAAH'. Apparently people of YouWhat were informed a few days before the trap would be set, or before it sprung. This alone makes it seem unlikely this was a trap. With all the spying involved in EvE, you can't set up a trap like this and afford to tell some random toon of another alliance about it a few days before.
Another thing to wonder about is what did the coalition lose? I've seen countless calculations, with numbers up to 150b worth for the dreads. Let's say, and this is by no means proven, just some rambling thoughts, the coalition knew they'd sacrifice dreads for a POS, they fit them accordingly. So t1 junk, worthless. Essentially they'd put 3 capital guns, a siege module and 2 capital repairers on. 300m worth of gear total. 500m insurance money to receive 1.5b upon lost. So that's 800m in total per dread.
42 dreads * 800m = 33.6b
For the carriers, I'm not sure why they were there, supposedly to rep the dreads or to kill support, I don't know. They should've known, or at least suspected, the lag was too much to lock, let alone kill, anything.
I'm assuming they had a 2 capital repairers and 2 capital remote reppers, if that's even possible, and assuming they didn't bring fighters as they'd be useless. Insurance on these would be along the lines of 300m, so 500m per carrier lost.
5 carriers * 500m = 2.5b
So lets round it up to 40b of gear lost.
That's a lot, but that's for as far as I'm aware still less than just the component cost of a titan, let alone the manhours to get the stuff to F-T, the blueprints (1 time investment, the titan BPO survived this in any event), the fuel cost for running the tower, or the 7 weeks of production time.
So iskwise, the coalition would've won this one. That is, provided there was a titan in production, of course. Again, if there wasn't, then bob won this one greatly. Coalition people post on the forums how this showed that the coalition can take down any POS they want. True to an extent, but it's only a matter of time before they'll wear their wallets out with this tactic. Claiming this wasn't a blow to the coalition is pointless really, they lost 42 dreads, most will be reimbursed by CCP apparently, which is good, I suppose.
Looking at the number of alliances deploying dreads, none of the alliance's usable dreadfleets will have decreased in numbers, all alliances had plenty of dreads in reserve to cover these losses, but when they keep losing them, we'll see diminished sizes, most likely leading to the abort of the assault.
So yeah, my post is already a small novel. I'm hoping BoB did lose a titan in this fight, if they didn't, I'm afraid not much can stop BoB.
Originally Posted by arfarf
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