Aggression, really, they seem to be doing okay to me? Well yes currently they are. At the same time they are formed from sources used to living low sec, people who want (and are requesting) as few blues as possible. Well I would suggest that those people be careful what they wish for, AGGRO's space the former home of UNL, one of AAA's traditional roaming grounds. Aggression is a new alliance with extremely weak communal ties that is stuck between a serial killer and a large mass of people who provide an even more tempting target than AGGRO themselves.
2. Coven and Systemic Chaos
At present these are two small but good alliances with strong allies, good space and ingrained community cultures. However, that can easily be a problem if they let the wrong people in. Their small size means that it is much more easy to reach a critical mass of lowbie carebears after moongold (lets call that Triumvirate Syndrome.) Don't laugh at this assertion, its happened to much better alliances than these two.
3. Executive Outcomes
Yeah, EXE even more than the other GBC members, though they are also at risk. EXE finds itself in the unique position of being made of corporations that are good enough to hold space but with no space to actually conquer independently. Furthermore those corporations only joined Executive Outcomes at a relatively recent date after failing out of other elite, dead, alliances. Supposedly NSN is leaving already, expect several of EXE's other stars to follow suit.
Okay, maybe these guys can see it coming but that is counteracted by how bad they have it. Not only are their member corps relatively new, many having this as their first space holding alliance, but they are also small and completely surrounded by enemies for the first time. Just as badly there is no single big corp for Kraftwerk to rally around, the alliance as a whole could easily have zero members in two months.
5. Sc0rched Earth
They're big, they're shitty, they're ex-KOS, they're turncoats and they live twelve jumps from AAA. Sc0rched Earth has so far survived based on TCF having too much space and ATLAS being in too much of a hurry. When AGGRO pvpers talk about resetting allies after the war its pretty obvious which alliance in particular they have in mind and that is BYRN. Worst for these guys is that they have a poor leadership that is unable to plan a head and see any of this stuff coming.
Triumvirate knows how to put up a fight and can, when required, field huge numbers. They have a community atmosphere that, while not perfect due to too much reliance on individual corps rather than the alliance as a whole, is better than a lot of the others on this list. So why them? They are an alliance that survives solely by winning and they've picked a fight they cannot win. They have good FCs and good allies but they just don't have the numbers for a victory or the cohesion for a retreat.
Well, the Goons aren't going to die anytime soon I concede. However they could soon be reaching their apex. Goonswarm has had "steady" numbers for around two years now, between five and six thousand. However the population of Eve continues to grow while they stay steady and the population of competing alliances has as well. This is increasingly hard to change too as the goons' home forum, Somethingawful slips into internet irrelevance. Two years ago there were three alliances in the game with over 2000 members while there are nine today (ten if you include HAVOC as part of AAA) At the same time that their enemies have gained numbers they have lost allies, there are currently three dedicated friendly alliances living with Goonswarm and very few traditional allies living close by. This is not what causes problems though, the real problem is that they currently have no real goal to follow, they seem doomed to stagnate.
Krautbreak will either have to adapt to life in a "napfest" or deal with defending space in enemy time zones with little help. For an alliance made of people who swore off conquerable space for years it is up in the air as to whether they will give it up once again, have a good go at it or (as I suspect) deal with corp leavings and drama over it which leave the alliance significantly weakened.
KIA owns space on opposite ends of the map. KIA is regularly unable to defend against incursions from midlevel neighbors. KIA is lead by a fool. KIA hasn't played a major part in a military victory in three and a half years, at the latest. KIA stole their logo from a college in South Carolina. KIA will still survive because of who their leader is friends with. They will still have to deal with all of the above though.
10. Ethereal Dawn/Intrepid Crossing
These alliances sold their proverbial souls for more space when they let in a horde of new corps. Image the looks on their faces (both new and old) when they realized they would only be getting a third of the space they originally wanted. Now image that the look on the IRC faces are sort of downsy because their current leader has a proven track record of abject failure. In the mean time these alliances have no real allies other than themselves and you can just ask R0adkill how much shooting yourself in the foot out of loyalty to your friend gets you. Well you should if you are ED anyway since it is obvious which of the two alliances will next lead ED/IRC into trouble.
Agree, disagree? Go on, tell me how much of a faggot I am.