As much as it would be a coup for CFC to have diplo'ed up a Solar invasion, i'm pretty sure Solar would have done this anyway. They've tried to take NCdotbro's assets before and failed (in the most recent cycle), and if they're looking at two options from the outcome of this war:
CFC takes another bite and installs someone who they destroyed last time, but is now backed by the all-conquering CFC
NCdot beats the CFC into submission, takes back Venal and becomes the premiere PVP alliance behind what will surely be a very strong HBC,
NCdot and CFC fight to stalemate, call a truce, and NC. decide to build morale by invading east.
In none of these scenarios do Solar get to take and keep Geminate and what tech it has once this war is done. So if Solar want Geminate (and surely, they do) then the time is to grab it now, and have time to prepare and be the status quo in Geminate before either side wins.