Rogue states : America's most wanted (NK/Iran/Syria etc discussion itt)

[Grim]

Lot of about this in the news lately. Obama seems to be extending the olive branch (while waving a big stick with his other hand) to try to avoid a war no one wants. Boehner was quoted saying that talking to Iran showed weakness, and thus to be avoided. Logicly, if talking to someone to avoid a conflict is bad, than a war is the only other option (since backing down also shows weakness). Every Republican candidate (besides Ron Paul) say they would bomb Iran no questions asked. It worries me a little that our politicians have such a blithe disregard for our military that they are doing everything in their power to force a 3rd war on us when we can least afford it.

On the other side all the threat forecasts say our edge against Iran is only going to get worse from here on out, so if there is going to be a war better now than in 10 years. So, will we be marching into Tehran within the next year?

[John Smith]

If you do it must be the dumbest move America will have made to date.

[Rer]

Its like War Games but in the end Tic-Tac-Toe doesn't work on Romney.

[Grath]

If you do it must be the dumbest move America will have made to date.

We figure its time to scale the winter welp up a notch.

[Barry Zuckerkorn]

So, will we be marching into Tehran within the next year?

I don't think so. I mean crazier shit has happened however, we all know we would do fairly well against Iran in combat but we have to factor in the political dynamic of the region.
I mean we all know people would get pissed off, but to what degree?
That's another thing that worries about all the saber rattling. How candidates speak is echoed through the world and we may have to answer for them at a later date and explain ourselves. I realize that strong rhetoric is a part of running for office and politics however just making a point.

I would ramble on with some other shit about the possible implications of an attack on our part, but its 1:30 am and I am watching Six Feet Under and it's damn good.

[Chipmunk McPaul]

I wonder why everyone thinks of Iran as such a big threat - I have Persian relatives, and they don't get why anyone would take Ahmadinejad serious.

Some1 care to elaborate?

[Barry Zuckerkorn]

I wonder why everyone thinks of Iran as such a big threat - I have Persian relatives, and they don't get why anyone would take Ahmadinejad serious.

Some1 care to elaborate?

Basically a nation who has said "If we get nuclear weapons we will use them" with the caveat they are actively trying to obtain them and are apparently pretty close.

It's a big deal because with nuclear weapons we get one shot, one fuck up, one and the mass loss of life and changing the global landscape can happen in a flash.

[Dunarad]

Te only one to benefit an US invasion of Iran would be turkey. They already took around 200 km² of syrian territory, mostly around hydroelectric power plants. They would do the the same in the Kurdish part of Iran.

[Barry Zuckerkorn]

Te only one to benefit an US invasion of Iran would be turkey.

Not quite. I seem to recall Iran saying something-something-something-Israel, something-something-something-complete.

Also it may ease security concerns not only for Israel but other nations nearby who would rather not like a nuclear Iran and the instability it would cause in the region.

EDIT: Your post may have been referring to a "spoils of war." Which would not be the reason for a US or coalition invasion.

[Chipmunk McPaul]

Basically a nation who has said "If we get nuclear weapons we will use them" with the caveat they are actively trying to obtain them and are apparently pretty close.

It's a big deal because with nuclear weapons we get one shot, one fuck up, one and the mass loss of life and changing the global landscape can happen in a flash.

The whole idea behind building a weapon system is to tell everyone you'll use it, otherwise it'd be pretty shitty decoy.

I also haven't heard anything about them desperately trying to get a nuke - got any articles or reports of that?

[Barry Zuckerkorn]

I also haven't heard anything about them desperately trying to get a nuke - got any articles or reports of that?

http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Doc...gov2011-65.pdf

TLDR - Some mumbo jumbo about enrichment and stuff.

Also another one of their scientists took the car bomb way out. No one took responsibility for that one. Anyone got any good suggestions as to who it may have been? Israel? USA? Some form of Iranian Resistance?

[Matos]

I would say Israel but then i don't know much about which intelligence services are killing what People

[xutech]

Syria is invading itself and we should attack Iran....

[Grim]

Iran and the US are basically yelling things like "come at me bro" and "do it, you won't" at each other. They are also more strategically important than Syria is.

It has been well publicized in the news that they have nuclear related hardened facilities designed to shelter their weapons program from the inevitable (from their POV) attack by western forces. It is also known that they have enriched their uranium to levels above what would be needed for peaceful civilian power.

Some of their diplomats have publicly (and proudly) said that their negotiations over the past decade have been enormously successful since it allowed them to continue their nuclear program under the facade of diplomacy.

As far as a conflict goes, America (and Europe) have said that they would never allow Iran to gain nuclear weapons. That statement leaves little wiggle room, since either Iran stops, or we make them stop. There is really no other alternative.

[Arrador]

If you do it must be the dumbest move America will have made to date.

I'm an american, and I support this message.

[Fartman]

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/iran-...-hormuz-crisis

[Traakile]

I'm just glad I'm dumb enough to not understand politics at all, keeps my life simple.

[Vonqueesha Shenaynay]

When I first got in the Marines, I was pretty active on keeping tabs on political actions. I was all opinionated about the war and whatnot.

Then I had a really important revelation that made things so much simpler:



No matter how many solutions you come up with, research you do, speculation you participate in and no matter how much you rant and rave, at the end of the day it doesn't really make a fuck because they're going to do what they're going to do. If you don't want politicians who make stupid decisions, don't vote for them. If there are no politicians capable of making intelligent decisions, move to another country. At the end of the day, we're all just kind of living our lives hoping that the next world war doesn't happen in our lifetime.

[Bill Schwartzski]

If you do it must be the dumbest move America will have made to date.

shit, if Obama gets a second term we're just going to fly in with SEAL team six and crash some copters into their shit.

if the GOP gets the white house back, take one guess what they're going to do to solidify their crazy base? Invade Iran.

edit: for srs, Obama's record on staying out of the fight while doing positive so far is good. However even a crazy liberal like myself will seek to remind everyone Obama caught bin Laden with a team that followed through from the Bush era. If the GOP gets control congratulations jingoism will be the name of the game again.

[Desert Punk]

One of three possibilities remain on the table:

- The latest round of sanctions targeting the Oil sector in Iran (the only thing still propping up their economy which is in pretty bad shape) really starts to bite forcing a turn around on their current pursuit of nuclear weapons.

- The government continues pursuing nuclear weapons regardless of Oil sanctions leading to a nose dive in the Iranian economy resulting in unrest and eventual upheaval of the current government. (Takes time)

- Third a combined US and Israel prolonged air campaign 2-3 weeks to knockout Iranian nuclear facilities in paticular those deep underground likely with Iran responding with Short - Med range missile attacks on Israel and American bases and a proxy war with Israel through Hezbollah.

[Grim]

Even if Iran does knock it off with their nuclear program they will just do what NK does and restart it a year later while asking for more ransom money.

[Night]

Even if Iran does knock it off with their nuclear program they will just do what NK does and restart it a year later while asking for more ransom money.

And then the world embargos their oil and they're shit out of luck.

Iran is holding a gun, and while it's occasionally pointed at other people, it's also mainly pointed at their own head. The real question is whether their decisionmakers understand/care.

[Lysander]

The idea that the US can indefinitely prevent nuclear proliferation is pure comedy.

Basically we tell countries we don't like: "Don't build nukes, or we'll invade (after many sanctions and much belly aching) you and shut it down."

And the country building nukes thinks: "Fuck, we'd better get on finishing up those nukes. We're going to need them sooner than we thought."

As long as we keep trying to police the world we will face a never ending cycle of "evil people building bad things that good people must stop at all costs". It's a tired justification.

[Susie Chow]

And then the world embargos their oil and they're shit out of luck.

I would like to see your world, Mr. Armchair Strategist. The one I live in has these countries called India, France, Russia, and China.

Iran is holding a gun, and while it's occasionally pointed at other people, it's also mainly pointed at their own head. The real question is whether their decisionmakers understand/care.

I, too, use single-panel political cartoons to stay abreast of current events.

[Night]

I would like to see your world, Mr. Armchair Strategist. The one I live in has these countries called India, France, Russia, and China.

The world I live in has the exports to China going through the Hormuz Strait. There comes a point where nobody's going to back your play anymore because it's just going to piss off too many people. If you shut down supertanker exports out of the Gulf or even make too much noise about doing it, the whole world is going to shit on you. It's happened before, though you're clearly too young and poorly educated to remember the tanker reflagging and the Iran-Iraq war. You also seem to have missed the bit where France is as upset as anyone.

Perhaps you'd better inform yourself on this issue further?

I, too, use single-panel political cartoons to stay abreast of current events.

It's quite clear you do. 60% of Iran's income is exports of oil. Of that, better than half pass through waterways Iran is currently threatening to close.

Have you ever seen what happens when a country drops 30% or more of its GDP voluntarily? Bad Things.

[icanhazcheesetoast]

The world I live in has the exports to China going through the Hormuz Strait. There comes a point where nobody's going to back your play anymore because it's just going to piss off too many people. If you shut down supertanker exports out of the Gulf or even make too much noise about doing it, the whole world is going to shit on you. It's happened before, though you're clearly too young and poorly educated to remember the tanker reflagging and the Iran-Iraq war. You also seem to have missed the bit where France is as upset as anyone.

Perhaps you'd better inform yourself on this issue further?



It's quite clear you do. 60% of Iran's income is exports of oil. Of that, better than half pass through waterways Iran is currently threatening to close.

Have you ever seen what happens when a country drops 30% or more of its GDP voluntarily? Bad Things.

To address the first point the Iranian embargo might be selective and just cutting off oil to US and its allies, heck I'd wager that they might even let American allies in the EU have their oil just to drive a wedge in the US/EU relations and secondly Iran doesn't mind playing a game of scorched earth tactics when its interests are concerened. FYI you don't don't have the faintest idea what hardline Islamist are capable of doing. Its doesn't matter if its the Shiite Iran or a Wahabi Taliban.

[somedude76]

The idea that the US can indefinitely prevent nuclear proliferation is pure comedy.

Basically we tell countries we don't like: "Don't build nukes, or we'll invade (after many sanctions and much belly aching) you and shut it down."

And the country building nukes thinks: "Fuck, we'd better get on finishing up those nukes. We're going to need them sooner than we thought."

As long as we keep trying to police the world we will face a never ending cycle of "evil people building bad things that good people must stop at all costs". It's a tired justification.

LoL, you're so cynical.

It's not just the US that is trying to stop Iran. Furthermore their desire to have nuclear capability would still be there if the US had packed up and gone home for good after WWII.

Nuclear non-proliferation is a good thing. Some places on earth should not have nukes. Iran is one of those places.

[Dunarad]

USA are an other.

[Lysander]

LoL, you're so cynical.

It's not just the US that is trying to stop Iran. Furthermore their desire to have nuclear capability would still be there if the US had packed up and gone home for good after WWII.

Nuclear non-proliferation is a good thing. Some places on earth should not have nukes. Iran is one of those places.

Funny that you seem to think the US is somehow more responsible with their nuclear weapons, considering we are literally the only country who has even detonated them in a real conflict.

I don't think any country should have nukes, but that's not a reality in our world. Like it or not, eventually an Islamist state is going to have a successful nuclear program and the weapons that go along with it. We're going to have to figure out a better way of keeping them from using those weapons than trying to play Team America World Police.

[Night]

To address the first point the Iranian embargo might be selective and just cutting off oil to US and its allies,

Any embargo, at any level, to anyone, is going to spark a shooting war. The world economy cannot afford to have the US embargoed anymore than it can afford to have China or the EU embargoed. (Indeed in those cases one getting knocked will badly damage the economy of the other, as they have a strong economic relationship themselves.)

Furthermore the Iranians aren't idiots. Their navy is small and for the most part hopelessly out of date or lacking necessary sea experience and maintenance. Their aircraft and shore-based missiles are also getting a bit old and are vulnerable to quick destruction from the air. They know that their only realistic chance of closing the straights lies in mining the fuck out of them, and mines are non-discriminatory weapons. Safe passage lanes for allies can be used by anyone who has a working pair of eyeballs to watch them and a map.

If they want to make good on such a threat, which at this time is the only realistic one in their arsenal, they have to fuck everybody or they will end up fucking nobody.

FYI you don't don't have the faintest idea what hardline Islamist are capable of doing. Its doesn't matter if its the Shiite Iran or a Wahabi Taliban.

I know all kinds of things about them, probably a damn sight more than you do, but I also know something about domestic Iranian politics. Iran is actually the most modern and arguably the most European country in the area. They have a good educational system. Their health-care system is the envy of the world. (I'm not even shitting you here, people study Iranian public healthcare as a model of how to offer quality care to remote, poor, rugged areas because it's one of the best in the world at doing it.) The population, like that of the Soviet Union towards the end, is wearing out on control and becoming disenchanted with their government. (Remember the street protests a couple years back?) Recent austerity measures have also provoked significant discontent, as has the terminally stalled Iranian economy and a growing unemployment rate.

The reason they've played up recent events like their "chasing" (lol?) the US carrier out of the Gulf is because they're trying to get more buy-in from the population that they're making progress against the external enemies whom they blame for many of these issues. The system is worried about its own stability and is trying to refocus the people's attention on an external threat.

[Desert Punk]

Funny that you seem to think the US is somehow more responsible with their nuclear weapons, considering we are literally the only country who has even detonated them in a real conflict.

The Primary worry with Iran is that its a country having stated Israel must be "Wiped off the map" while trying to aquire nuclear weapons.

I don't think any country should have nukes, but that's not a reality in our world. Like it or not, eventually an Islamist state is going to have a successful nuclear program and the weapons that go along with it.

:Pakistan:
http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/pakistan/
and Pakistan is far from a model of a stable nuclear weapons state having militants/extremists some of whom with close links to the military. America may work with Pakistan as an "ally" however they have serious concerns over their nuclear weapons.

We're going to have to figure out a better way of keeping them from using those weapons than trying to play Team America World Police.

Best way of keeping them from using those weapons is to keep them from getting them at all, if they were to acquire nuclear weapons it would likely spark an arms race in the notoriously unstable middle east, and what's to keep Iran from giving Information/Nuclear Material to extremists whom would be less accountable for their actions.

[Lysander]

The Primary worry with Iran is that its a country having stated Israel must be "Wiped off the map" while trying to aquire nuclear weapons.


:Pakistan:
http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/pakistan/
and Pakistan is far from a model of a stable nuclear weapons state having militants/extremists some of whom with close links to the military. America may work with Pakistan as an "ally" however they have serious concerns over their nuclear weapons.


Best way of keeping them from using those weapons is to keep them from getting them at all, if they were to acquire nuclear weapons it would likely spark an arms race in the notoriously unstable middle east, and what's to keep Iran from giving Information/Nuclear Material to extremists whom would be less accountable for their actions.

You honestly believe we can keep our fingers in the damn indefinitely?

The reason Iran is building nukes in the first place isn't because they want to blow up Israel, there are plenty of cheaper ways to do that. It's because no one fucks with a country with nukes. They want to insure that what happened in Iraq won't happen to them. They can't afford the high tech military infrastructure to combat the US and allied military forces so the only option in their minds is to get nuclear weapons as fast as possible.

We've basically created a world situation where nuclear and (even worse and far more likely) biotech weapons are first choice for poorer, ideologically opposed nations. They can't afford a modern, mechanized military force (at least on the ridiculous level of investment the US makes), so they invest where they get the most bang for their buck. This isn't going to get better with time. Our options are either to wipe them off the face of the map or to find some common ground and solve it through diplomacy. If Iraq has proved anything it's that we can't just move in and fix everything with the magic of democracy.

[Night]

You honestly believe we can keep our fingers in the damn indefinitely?

Honestly? No.

That doesn't mean we should not make every effort to do so. The longer it can be delayed the more chance there is of solving the problem diplomatically. What you've stated but not realized is that once entrenched behind their nuclear walls, they'll have very little reason to listen to anyone. A diplomatic solution becomes much less likely with a nuclear-armed nation.

We already saw one nuclear-armed country go into failure cascade, and the sheer amount of anxiety about securing weapons and materials when the USSR was something to behold. I think there's stuff that still hasn't been accounted for. Whatever else one might say about the Russians, they kept good records. Can you imagine the madness that would ensue if Pakistan or Iran or West Bumfuck, Africa, were to endure a revolution while they had nukes?

You want to know what good it does to play world police on nuclear proliferation: it buys time. Time for things to become stable or change.

[Deniera]

All american really has left is its crazy large military... if that is squandered ...then who is the next superpower? I mean best case scenario the US doesn't falter too much and the EU steps in to keep power in the western world.

Who knows in 10 years time we europeans may get to vote on the leader of the free world - aka - the EU presidency.

[icanhazcheesetoast]

Honestly? No.

That doesn't mean we should not make every effort to do so. The longer it can be delayed the more chance there is of solving the problem diplomatically. What you've stated but not realized is that once entrenched behind their nuclear walls, they'll have very little reason to listen to anyone. A diplomatic solution becomes much less likely with a nuclear-armed nation.

We already saw one nuclear-armed country go into failure cascade, and the sheer amount of anxiety about securing weapons and materials when the USSR was something to behold. I think there's stuff that still hasn't been accounted for. Whatever else one might say about the Russians, they kept good records. Can you imagine the madness that would ensue if Pakistan or Iran or West Bumfuck, Africa, were to endure a revolution while they had nukes?

You want to know what good it does to play world police on nuclear proliferation: it buys time. Time for things to become stable or change.

honestly that's the most disillusioned opinion I have seen to-date. every time the west (US/UK/EU) stepped in to fix(police) something the situation went from bad to worse. sometimes its best to embrace the inevitable rather than turn it into a self fulfilling prophecy.

[Rer]

embrace the inevitable

Billions of lives being put at risk because some idiot presses a big red button?

No thanks. The United States playing World Police is a necessary evil. Are we the first and only country to have ever dropped a Nuke? Yes, and immediately upon doing so we shocked the rest of the world and ourselves into realizing the horrible power we had created. Anyone who thinks the world would be better off if we just butt out and don't do anything can refer to past events when we did exactly that. TLR- People died, a lot, of people died.

Its horseshit that we get blamed for all of the World's problems, but the minute its your (and I mean this in general not directing this at you icanhaz) country's problem, suddenly we're expected to come riding in on our golden chariot and save the day.

A necessary, and very often annoying, evil indeed.

[Night]

disillusioned

It would help if you knew how to use the language, and offered evidence for your statements, and weren't a mouthbreathing retard, but let's just work on one of the first two for now.

[icanhazcheesetoast]

It would help if you knew how to use the language, and offered evidence for your statements, and weren't a mouthbreathing retard, but let's just work on one of the first two for now.

I intended to say delusional and you it knew damn well. also I'm pretty astonished that a god awful redneck like you choose to conveniently ignore your(American occupation of Iraq) recent history in Iraq.

[somedude76]

USA are an other.

That's pretty rich coming from a man who's country sold Iraq a reactor.

[somedude76]

I intended to say delusional and you it knew damn well. also I'm pretty astonished that a god awful redneck like you choose to conveniently ignore your(American occupation of Iraq) recent history in Iraq.

You make it sound like it was a crime instead of a favor! If Muslims weren't so bent on killing each other Iraq would be a better place because of what we did. Instead Sunnis gotta be all crazy and blow up the Shiites and fuck everything up.

How bout that hubris?

[Zakhodit]

Iran is playing wag the dog.

Mostly, for the reasons already given above.

The US is not going to Punt the Dog unless the dog actually bites. Right now it's just barking and no one cares.

[Raketefrau]

No thanks. The United States playing World Police is a necessary evil. Are we the first and only country to have ever dropped a Nuke? Yes, and immediately upon doing so we shocked the rest of the world and ourselves into realizing the horrible power we had created. Anyone who thinks the world would be better off if we just butt out and don't do anything can refer to past events when we did exactly that. TLR- People died, a lot, of people died.

This would be fine if we didn't throw a few golden showers in with the golden chariot every once in a while. Claiming altrusim doesn't always work with our military history. We've done some good shit, and we've done some bad shit.

[Rer]

I didn't mean to infer that we are in any way infallible. We've fucked up plenty of times, but despite said fuckups I feel its important we continue to play the role of 'World Policeman' until either someone else steps up to the plate, or we no longer have a reason to.

[John Smith]

I didn't mean to infer that we are in any way infallible. We've fucked up plenty of times, but despite said fuckups I feel its important we continue to play the role of 'World Policeman' until either someone else steps up to the plate, or we no longer have a reason to.

Does your version of playing 'World Policemen' involve supporting Dictatorships, overthrowing democratically elected governments, fermenting rebellion, supporting terrorist groups and invading country's against international law? Because those are things America has done in the last 50 years or are you just looking at things through rose tinted glass'?

[icanhazcheesetoast]

Does your version of playing 'World Policemen' involve supporting Dictatorships, overthrowing democratically elected governments, fermenting rebellion, supporting terrorist groups and invading country's against international law? Because those are things America has done in the last 50 years or are you just looking at things through rose tinted glass'?

I'll proxy vote for John Smith 2012

[xutech]

Pinochet, The Shah of Iran and Ngo Dinh Diem.

[Lysander]

You make it sound like it was a crime instead of a favor! If Muslims weren't so bent on killing each other Iraq would be a better place because of what we did. Instead Sunnis gotta be all crazy and blow up the Shiites and fuck everything up.

How bout that hubris?

Edit: nvm, misunderstood your post.

Edit 2: Unfortunately, invading Iraq was a crime and not something we did out of the goodness of our hearts. If we just went around freeing repressed and abused peoples there'd have been US troops in Congo, Darfur and Somalia a long, long time ago. We went to Iraq because we thought it would benefit us, not because we just couldn't stand not being able to share the brilliant light of democracy with those heathen Muslims.

You honestly believe there wasn't a single military strategist who foresaw the fact that the Sunni and Shiite ethnic groups would go at each other's throats the instant the government dissolved? We knew exactly what was going to happen, we just thought we could handle it and profit from it.

[Rer]

Does your version of playing 'World Policemen' involve supporting Dictatorships, overthrowing democratically elected governments, fermenting rebellion, supporting terrorist groups and invading country's against international law? Because those are things America has done in the last 50 years or are you just looking at things through rose tinted glass'?

1) No
2) No
3) No
4) No
5) No

Did we do them all anyways? Yep.
Am I proud or supportive of that? Fuck no.
Would literally any other country in our position have done it differently? I highly doubt it.

Edit: For the record I don't support the Iraq War, still think it was illegal, and incredibly retarded.

[Grim]

Pinochet, The Shah of Iran and Ngo Dinh Diem.

Sorry comrade, but someone had to hold back the godless communists.

[Bill Schwartzski]

Does your version of playing 'World Policemen' involve supporting Dictatorships, overthrowing democratically elected governments, fermenting rebellion, supporting terrorist groups and invading country's against international law? Because those are things America has done in the last 50 years or are you just looking at things through rose tinted glass'?

You know what they say - the road to hell is paved with good intentions and America is so stuffed with good intentions when we jizz we jizz good intentions.