by, 2011-08-24 at 04:15 AM (710 Views)
With all the ridiculous graphics and "leaked" "exclusives" being shoved on the "readers" of evenews, one might be forgiven for assuming that the AAA-Russian war is the main event of this season. In reality, it is probably just the opening act for what will be a more interesting conflict in Tribute. No, I am not solely referring to the absurd deployment of Stainwagon up north, but rather to the powderkeg that is the the Tribute/Branch-Deklein border.
With PL removing their supercaps from the reasonable range of welpfleets, the blob of blues that overwhelmed the Northern Coalition look to be in an evermore tenuous position. At the end of the day, the slight supercap advantage they hold over Deklein's forces is not only largely negated by the welpfleet doctrine, but will become non-existent should they start trading supercaps with Stainwagon. AAA desperately wants to draw Mittani into this war, and despite Goon claims of neutrality that would make Switzerland proud, they will probably get their wish. We end up with three plausible scenarios:
AAA attacks Tribute alone, develops a stalemate, giving Deklein Coalition an opening to attack Branch or Tenal.
AAA attacks Tribute, Deklein Coalition joins the attack to end it quickly so that the Southern Russians don't come north.
AAA attacks Tribute, loses but weakens NCDOT enough that Deklein feels they could cause a cascade if they chose to apply pressure.
Sure AAA could win an outright victory and move North in force, but that doesn't seem any more plausible then Molle orchestrating a coup of RaidenDOT. Nor does it seem plausible that Mittani will pass up the opportunity to dislodge a forever war enemy or two, especially if those enemies are reeling for an embarrassing defeat at VFK and PL stays out of the equation. The real questions are whether Mittani can convince Test to come along for the ride, and which region they will ultimately attack. A sweep of all three is unlikely, as Goons want some reds to fight, but at the same time no one wants perma-camped JBs.